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Daniel Kelly

Inactive · Southpaw · 183 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1557 ±39
LCB 1506
Rank
—
—
UFC record
6-4-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 4
Streak
-3
Δ90d -4 · Δ1y -4
Last fight
May 27, 2018
L by KO

Elo history

10 fights · tap & drag
Nov 7, 2014 — W vs Luke Zachrich Δ+33Feb 14, 2015 — W vs Patrick Walsh Δ+28May 9, 2015 — L vs Sam Alvey Δ-34Nov 14, 2015 — W vs Steve Montgomery Δ+24Mar 19, 2016 — W vs Antonio Carlos Junior Δ+32Nov 26, 2016 — W vs Chris Camozzi Δ+13Mar 4, 2017 — W vs Rashad Evans Δ+20Jun 10, 2017 — L vs Derek Brunson Δ-19Nov 18, 2017 — L vs Elias Theodorou Δ-16May 27, 2018 — L vs Tom Breese Δ-19 14871529157116141656 2015201620172018 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":178,"elo":1533,"date":"2014-11-07","opp":"Luke Zachrich","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":89,"y":142.2,"elo":1562,"date":"2015-02-14","opp":"Patrick Walsh","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":2,"x":144.2,"y":185.6,"elo":1527,"date":"2015-05-09","opp":"Sam Alvey","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":3,"x":268.4,"y":155.7,"elo":1551,"date":"2015-11-14","opp":"Steve Montgomery","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":4,"x":351.1,"y":115.5,"elo":1583,"date":"2016-03-19","opp":"Antonio Carlos Junior","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":5,"x":516.7,"y":98.9,"elo":1596,"date":"2016-11-26","opp":"Chris Camozzi","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":6,"x":581.1,"y":74.4,"elo":1616,"date":"2017-03-04","opp":"Rashad Evans","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":7,"x":645.4,"y":98.3,"elo":1597,"date":"2017-06-10","opp":"Derek Brunson","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":8,"x":751.2,"y":118.9,"elo":1580,"date":"2017-11-18","opp":"Elias Theodorou","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":9,"x":876,"y":143.3,"elo":1561,"date":"2018-05-27","opp":"Tom Breese","result":"L","delta":-19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 27, 2018 Tom Breese L -19
Nov 18, 2017 Elias Theodorou L -16
Jun 10, 2017 Derek Brunson L -19
Mar 4, 2017 Rashad Evans W +20
Nov 26, 2016 Chris Camozzi W +13

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.18 avg 3.81
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
39% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.08 avg 3.07
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
62% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.64 avg 1.42
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
34% avg 45%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
79% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.27 avg 0.48
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
33%
2 / 6
Finish rate
KO
1
17% of wins
SUB
1
17% of wins
DEC
4
67% of wins
KO: 1 (17%) 1 Sub: 1 (17%) 1 Dec: 4 (67%) 4
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1590
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.2
actual +1 vs expected