HonestElo
← welterweight

Sage Northcutt

Inactive · Orthodox · 183 cm · reach 180 cm
Elo rating
1561 ±30
LCB 1522
Rank
—
—
UFC record
6-2-0
KO 2 · Sub 1 · Dec 3
Streak
+3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y 0
Last fight
Jul 14, 2018
W by KO

Elo history

8 fights · tap & drag
Oct 3, 2015 — W vs Francisco Trevino Δ+33Dec 10, 2015 — W vs Cody Pfister Δ+29Jan 30, 2016 — L vs Bryan Barberena Δ-38Jul 9, 2016 — W vs Enrique Marin Δ+24Dec 17, 2016 — L vs Mickey Gall Δ-32Nov 11, 2017 — W vs Michel Quinones Δ+14Feb 18, 2018 — W vs Thibault Gouti Δ+13Jul 14, 2018 — W vs Zak Ottow Δ+18 14771508154015711603 201620172018 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":140.8,"elo":1533,"date":"2015-10-03","opp":"Francisco Trevino","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":81.1,"y":91.3,"elo":1563,"date":"2015-12-10","opp":"Cody Pfister","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":2,"x":123.9,"y":155.4,"elo":1524,"date":"2016-01-30","opp":"Bryan Barberena","result":"L","delta":-38},{"i":3,"x":259,"y":115.4,"elo":1548,"date":"2016-07-09","opp":"Enrique Marin","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":4,"x":394.2,"y":168.7,"elo":1517,"date":"2016-12-17","opp":"Mickey Gall","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":5,"x":670.3,"y":145.5,"elo":1530,"date":"2017-11-11","opp":"Michel Quinones","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":6,"x":753.4,"y":124.4,"elo":1543,"date":"2018-02-18","opp":"Thibault Gouti","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":7,"x":876,"y":93.8,"elo":1561,"date":"2018-07-14","opp":"Zak Ottow","result":"W","delta":18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 14, 2018 Zak Ottow W +18
Feb 18, 2018 Thibault Gouti W +13
Nov 11, 2017 Michel Quinones W +14
Dec 17, 2016 Mickey Gall L -32
Jul 9, 2016 Enrique Marin W +24

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.97 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
52% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.62 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
59% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.50 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
35% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
42% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.50 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
3 / 6
Finish rate
KO
2
33% of wins
SUB
1
17% of wins
DEC
3
50% of wins
KO: 2 (33%) 2 Sub: 1 (17%) 1 Dec: 3 (50%) 3
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
1 33%
R2
2 67%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1498
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.4
actual +2 vs expected