Lucas Fernando
Active Provisional
At a glance
- 100% of wins by KO/TKO
Elo rating
1508
Global Elo 1534 ±20
Rank
—
—
UFC record
1-0-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 · Dec 0
Streak
+1
Δ90d +34 · Δ1y +34
Last fight
Aug 15, 2026
Win by KO · R3
UFC debut the one fight we've seen
Won by KO/TKO · Round 3
Debut opponent
Rafael Tobias 1466
Elo at fight time
The model gave Fernando a 55% pre-fight chance against this opponent. He came through.
Debut performance
6.2
Strikes landed / min
60%
Striking accuracy
77%
Striking defense
0.2m
Control / 15 min
This rating is provisional — built from a single UFC fight, so its uncertainty band is wide (σ ≈ 20). It will sharpen with every bout, and can move a lot early on. How the model handles thin samples →
Career at a glance
Octagon time
11m
Avg fight time
11:10
Since last fight
0d
How the wins come
- 1 win by knockout 100%
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Honest Elo history
1 fights · tap & dragLast fights
Elo-based expectation · not betting advice| Date | Opponent | Result | Δ Elo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rafael Tobias | W | +30 |
How the wins come
- 1 win by knockout 100%
Performance
Fighter vs division avg
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Strikes Landed per Minute
- 1Iwo Baraniewski11.29
- 2Zhang Mingyang6.64
- 3Carlos Ulberg6.61
- 4Navajo Stirling6.41
- 5Paulo Costa6.15
SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Striking Accuracy
- 1Diyar Nurgozhay63%
- 2Paulo Costa59%
- 3Rodolfo Bellato59%
- 4Zhang Mingyang59%
- 5Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev58%
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Lowest Strikes Absorbed
- 1Oumar Sy1.87
- 2Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev2.25
- 3Navajo Stirling2.46
- 4Magomed Ankalaev2.49
- 5Austen Lane2.56
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Striking Defense
- 1Oumar Sy67%
- 2Caio Machado62%
- 3Navajo Stirling59%
- 4Robert Whittaker59%
- 5Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev58%
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Takedowns per 15 Minutes
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev12.68
- 2Jimmy Crute4.64
- 3Julius Walker4.07
- 4Ion Cutelaba4.02
- 5Bruno Lopes2.91
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Takedown Accuracy
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Takedown Defense
- 1Iwo Baraniewski100%
- 2Zhang Mingyang100%
- 3Julius Walker100%
- 4Bruno Lopes100%
- 5Rodolfo Bellato92%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Submission Attempts per 15 Min
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev8.45
- 2Jimmy Crute2.13
- 3Nikita Krylov1.14
- 4Billy Elekana0.85
- 5Tuco Tokkos0.70
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Control Time per 15 Minutes
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev10.07
- 2Julius Walker8.17
- 3Austen Lane6.24
- 4Jimmy Crute6.02
- 5Nikita Krylov5.30
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Knockdowns per 15 Minutes
- 1Iwo Baraniewski17.82
- 2Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev8.45
- 3Zhang Mingyang1.50
- 4Azamat Murzakanov1.42
- 5Carlos Ulberg1.25
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg
Finishes
How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.100%
1 / 1
Finish rate
KO
1
100% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
R2
R3 1 100%
R4
R5
Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 69 landed total · career
Targets head · body · leg
54% Head
- Head 54%
- Body 26%
- Leg 20%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
96% Distance
- Distance 96%
- Clinch 1%
- Ground 3%
Strength of schedule in UFC
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1466
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win
The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Rafael Tobias
Elo 1466 at fight time
Expected wins
How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
0.6
+0.5 wins above what this schedule implies
Career at a glance
Octagon time
11m
Avg fight time
11:10
Since last fight
0d
Top light heavyweight
See full rankings → Source
Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from
Lucas Fernando on UFCStats →.
Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo —
not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.