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Justin Scoggins

Inactive · age 34 · Southpaw · 5'7" 170 cm · 125 lb 57 kg · reach 66" 168 cm
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • UFC veteran since 2013
Elo rating
1445
Global Elo 1493 ±37
Rank
—
—
UFC record
4-5-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
-3
Δ90d +13 · Δ1y +13
Last fight
Jul 14, 2018
Loss by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 41m
Avg fight time
11:12
Bonuses
2
Fights per year
2.0
Ground control
37m
Since last fight
7y 11mo

Honest Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Dec 6, 2013 — W vs Richie Vaculik Δ+33Mar 15, 2014 — W vs Will Campuzano Δ+20Jul 6, 2014 — L vs Dustin Ortiz Δ-31Sep 5, 2014 — L vs John Moraga Δ-32May 23, 2015 — W vs Josh Sampo Δ+27Feb 6, 2016 — W vs Ray Borg Δ+18Nov 19, 2016 — L vs Pedro Munhoz Δ-19Jun 17, 2017 — L vs Yuta Sasaki Δ-20Jul 14, 2018 — L vs Said Nurmagomedov Δ-16 1400142514501475150015251550 20142015201620172018 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":201.6,"elo":1498,"date":"2013-12-06","opp":"Richie Vaculik","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":132.4,"y":160,"elo":1517,"date":"2014-03-15","opp":"Will Campuzano","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":2,"x":180.8,"y":225.3,"elo":1487,"date":"2014-07-06","opp":"Dustin Ortiz","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":3,"x":206.9,"y":293.7,"elo":1455,"date":"2014-09-05","opp":"John Moraga","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":4,"x":318.3,"y":235.7,"elo":1482,"date":"2015-05-23","opp":"Josh Sampo","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":5,"x":429.2,"y":196.7,"elo":1500,"date":"2016-02-06","opp":"Ray Borg","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":552.2,"y":237.4,"elo":1481,"date":"2016-11-19","opp":"Pedro Munhoz","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":7,"x":642.1,"y":280.9,"elo":1461,"date":"2017-06-17","opp":"Yuta Sasaki","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":8,"x":810,"y":314.6,"elo":1445,"date":"2018-07-14","opp":"Said Nurmagomedov","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 14, 2018 Said Nurmagomedov L -16
Jun 17, 2017 Yuta Sasaki L -20
Nov 19, 2016 Pedro Munhoz L -19
Feb 6, 2016 Ray Borg W +18
May 23, 2015 Josh Sampo W +27

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
25%
1 / 4
Finish rate
KO
1
25% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
75% of wins
KO: 1 (25%) 1 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (75%) 3
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
1 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 359 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
66% Head
  • Head 66%
  • Body 21%
  • Leg 14%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
62% Distance
  • Distance 62%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 28%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
60%
of losses by finish
3 of 5 · usually R2
0 KO/TKO 3 Sub 2 Dec Never been KO'd

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1508
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Ray Borg
Elo 1568 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
4.7
−0.7 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 9 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1500

Top flyweight

See full rankings →
Alexandre Pantoja
#1 · Elo 1646
Joshua Van C
#2 · Elo 1633
Manel Kape
#3 · Elo 1601
Tatsuro Taira
#4 · Elo 1597
Kyoji Horiguchi
#5 · Elo 1578
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Justin Scoggins on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.