HonestElo
← flyweight

Chris Cariaso

Inactive · Southpaw · 160 cm · reach 163 cm
Elo rating
1526 ±35
LCB 1480
Rank
—
—
UFC record
7-6-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 · Dec 6
Streak
-3
Δ90d +1 · Δ1y +1
Last fight
Oct 3, 2015
L by Decision

Elo history

13 fights · tap & drag
Jan 22, 2011 — W vs Will Campuzano Δ+26May 28, 2011 — L vs Michael McDonald Δ-29Nov 5, 2011 — W vs Vaughan Lee Δ+29Feb 25, 2012 — W vs Takeya Mizugaki Δ+29Jul 11, 2012 — W vs Josh Ferguson Δ+22Dec 29, 2012 — L vs John Moraga Δ-21May 18, 2013 — L vs Jussier Formiga Δ-20Oct 9, 2013 — W vs Iliarde Santos Δ+13Feb 1, 2014 — W vs Danny Martinez Δ+14May 10, 2014 — W vs Louis Smolka Δ+15Sep 27, 2014 — L vs Demetrious Johnson Δ-18Mar 14, 2015 — L vs Henry Cejudo Δ-17Oct 3, 2015 — L vs Sergio Pettis Δ-18 14581498153815781618 2012201320142015 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":145.6,"elo":1526,"date":"2011-01-22","opp":"Will Campuzano","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":1,"x":86.6,"y":183.3,"elo":1498,"date":"2011-05-28","opp":"Michael McDonald","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":2,"x":166.6,"y":145,"elo":1527,"date":"2011-11-05","opp":"Vaughan Lee","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":3,"x":222.2,"y":106.7,"elo":1556,"date":"2012-02-25","opp":"Takeya Mizugaki","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":290.3,"y":78.2,"elo":1577,"date":"2012-07-11","opp":"Josh Ferguson","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":5,"x":375.2,"y":105.5,"elo":1557,"date":"2012-12-29","opp":"John Moraga","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":6,"x":444.8,"y":131.5,"elo":1537,"date":"2013-05-18","opp":"Jussier Formiga","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":7,"x":516.3,"y":113.9,"elo":1550,"date":"2013-10-09","opp":"Iliarde Santos","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":8,"x":573.5,"y":95.9,"elo":1564,"date":"2014-02-01","opp":"Danny Martinez","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":9,"x":622.1,"y":76.7,"elo":1578,"date":"2014-05-10","opp":"Louis Smolka","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":10,"x":691.7,"y":100.9,"elo":1560,"date":"2014-09-27","opp":"Demetrious Johnson","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":11,"x":775.2,"y":123.8,"elo":1543,"date":"2015-03-14","opp":"Henry Cejudo","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":12,"x":876,"y":147.1,"elo":1525,"date":"2015-10-03","opp":"Sergio Pettis","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 3, 2015 Sergio Pettis L -18
Mar 14, 2015 Henry Cejudo L -17
Sep 27, 2014 Demetrious Johnson L -18
May 10, 2014 Louis Smolka W +15
Feb 1, 2014 Danny Martinez W +14

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.19 avg 3.37
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
43% avg 47%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.33 avg 2.85
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
60% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.81 avg 1.57
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
38% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
57% avg 64%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.57 avg 0.75
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
14%
1 / 7
Finish rate
KO
1
14% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
6
86% of wins
KO: 1 (14%) 1 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 6 (86%) 6
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
R2
1 100%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1543
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
7.1
actual 0 vs expected