HonestElo
← welterweight

TJ Waldburger

Inactive · Orthodox · 180 cm · reach 191 cm
Elo rating
1532 ±36
LCB 1485
Rank
—
—
UFC record
4-4-0
KO 0 · Sub 3 · Dec 1
Streak
-2
Δ90d +10 · Δ1y +10
Last fight
Feb 22, 2014
L by KO

Elo history

8 fights · tap & drag
Sep 15, 2010 — W vs David Mitchell Δ+29Mar 26, 2011 — L vs Johny Hendricks Δ-28Sep 17, 2011 — W vs Mike Stumpf Δ+33Mar 2, 2012 — W vs Jake Hecht Δ+34Jun 22, 2012 — L vs Brian Ebersole Δ-27Dec 15, 2012 — W vs Nick Catone Δ+17Oct 19, 2013 — L vs Adlan Amagov Δ-20Feb 22, 2014 — L vs Mike Pyle Δ-16 14611498153415711608 2011201220132014 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":138.1,"elo":1529,"date":"2010-09-15","opp":"David Mitchell","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":154.2,"y":178.2,"elo":1501,"date":"2011-03-26","opp":"Johny Hendricks","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":2,"x":273,"y":130.3,"elo":1534,"date":"2011-09-17","opp":"Mike Stumpf","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":3,"x":386.2,"y":81.8,"elo":1568,"date":"2012-03-02","opp":"Jake Hecht","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":4,"x":462.2,"y":120.7,"elo":1541,"date":"2012-06-22","opp":"Brian Ebersole","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":5,"x":581.6,"y":96.2,"elo":1558,"date":"2012-12-15","opp":"Nick Catone","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":790.5,"y":125.1,"elo":1538,"date":"2013-10-19","opp":"Adlan Amagov","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":7,"x":876,"y":148.1,"elo":1522,"date":"2014-02-22","opp":"Mike Pyle","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 22, 2014 Mike Pyle L -16
Oct 19, 2013 Adlan Amagov L -20
Dec 15, 2012 Nick Catone W +17
Jun 22, 2012 Brian Ebersole L -27
Mar 2, 2012 Jake Hecht W +34

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
1.60 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
51% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.89 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
40% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.40 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
46% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
40% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
3.80 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
75%
3 / 4
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
3
75% of wins
DEC
1
25% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 3 (75%) 3 Dec: 1 (25%) 1
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
2 67%
R2
1 33%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1551
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.9
actual 0 vs expected