HonestElo
← light heavyweight

Liu Ce "The Oriental Dragon"

Active Provisional
At a glance
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • 100% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 100% of wins finished in round 1
  • 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights
Elo rating
1506
Global Elo 1532 ±20
Rank
—
—
UFC record
1-0-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 · Dec 0
Streak
+1
Δ90d +32 · Δ1y +32
Last fight
Aug 29, 2026
Win by KO · R1
UFC debut the one fight we've seen

Won by KO/TKO · Round 1

Debut opponent
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
1465
Elo at fight time

The model gave Ce a 55% pre-fight chance against this opponent. He came through.

Debut performance
13.3
Strikes landed / min
72%
Striking accuracy
51%
Striking defense
0.2m
Control / 15 min

This rating is provisional — built from a single UFC fight, so its uncertainty band is wide (σ ≈ 20). It will sharpen with every bout, and can move a lot early on. How the model handles thin samples →

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…
vs Compare across divisions →

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Honest Elo history

1 fights · tap & drag
Aug 29, 2026 — W vs Levi Rodrigues Jr. Δ+30 148014901500151015201530 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":246.8,"elo":1506,"date":"2026-08-29","opp":"Levi Rodrigues Jr.","result":"W","delta":30}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 29, 2026 Levi Rodrigues Jr. W +30
1 post-fight bonus
  • Fight of the Night ×1
$100,000 in bonus money

UFC awards a discretionary bonus for the night's best fight and finishes. Liu Ce has earned 1. The payout was $50,000 from 2014 to 2025 and $100,000 from 2026; select cards have paid more.

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
—
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
1 / 1
Finish rate
KO
1
100% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 1 (100%) 1 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
1 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 59 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
71% Head
  • Head 71%
  • Body 15%
  • Leg 14%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
92% Distance
  • Distance 92%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 0%

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1465
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Elo 1465 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
0.6
+0.5 wins above what this schedule implies
Career at a glance
Octagon time
4m
Avg fight time
4:26
Since last fight
2mo
Bonuses
1
vs Compare Liu Ce with any fighter any division · any era · honest simulation →

Top light heavyweight

See full rankings →
Carlos Ulberg C
#1 · Elo 1670
Magomed Ankalaev
#2 · Elo 1670
Robert Whittaker
#3 · Elo 1633
Navajo Stirling
#4 · Elo 1622
Azamat Murzakanov
#5 · Elo 1611
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Liu Ce on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.