John Lober "The Machine"
Inactive Provisional · age 58 · Orthodox ·
5'11" 180 cm ·
199 lb 90 kg
At a glance
- UFC veteran since 1998
Elo rating
1493
Global Elo 1519 ±20
Rank
—
—
UFC record
0-1-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 0
Streak
-1
Δ90d +47 · Δ1y +47
Last fight
Oct 16, 1998
Loss by Submission · R1
UFC debut the one fight we've seen
Lost by submission · Round 1
Debut opponent
Frank Shamrock 1617
Elo at fight time
The model gave Lober a 34% pre-fight chance against this opponent. It went the other way.
Debut performance
0.5
Strikes landed / min
36%
Striking accuracy
30%
Striking defense
This rating is provisional — built from a single UFC fight, so its uncertainty band is wide (σ ≈ 20). It will sharpen with every bout, and can move a lot early on. How the model handles thin samples →
Career at a glance
Octagon time
8m
Avg fight time
7:40
Since last fight
27y 10mo
Title fights
0-1
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Honest Elo history
1 fights · tap & dragLast fights
Elo-based expectation · not betting advice| Date | Opponent | Result | Δ Elo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 1998 | Frank Shamrock | L | -28 |
Performance
Fighter vs division avg
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Strikes Landed per Minute
- 1Iwo Baraniewski11.29
- 2Zhang Mingyang6.64
- 3Carlos Ulberg6.61
- 4Navajo Stirling6.41
- 5Paulo Costa6.15
SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Striking Accuracy
- 1Diyar Nurgozhay63%
- 2Paulo Costa59%
- 3Rodolfo Bellato59%
- 4Zhang Mingyang59%
- 5Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev58%
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Lowest Strikes Absorbed
- 1Oumar Sy1.87
- 2Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev2.25
- 3Navajo Stirling2.46
- 4Magomed Ankalaev2.49
- 5Austen Lane2.56
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Striking Defense
- 1Oumar Sy67%
- 2Caio Machado62%
- 3Navajo Stirling59%
- 4Robert Whittaker59%
- 5Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev58%
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Takedowns per 15 Minutes
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev12.68
- 2Jimmy Crute4.64
- 3Julius Walker4.07
- 4Ion Cutelaba4.02
- 5Bruno Lopes2.91
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Takedown Accuracy
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Takedown Defense
- 1Iwo Baraniewski100%
- 2Zhang Mingyang100%
- 3Julius Walker100%
- 4Bruno Lopes100%
- 5Rodolfo Bellato92%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Submission Attempts per 15 Min
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev8.45
- 2Jimmy Crute2.13
- 3Nikita Krylov1.14
- 4Billy Elekana0.85
- 5Tuco Tokkos0.70
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Control Time per 15 Minutes
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev10.07
- 2Julius Walker8.17
- 3Austen Lane6.24
- 4Jimmy Crute6.02
- 5Nikita Krylov5.30
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
Top 5 · light heavyweight
Knockdowns per 15 Minutes
- 1Iwo Baraniewski17.82
- 2Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev8.45
- 3Zhang Mingyang1.50
- 4Azamat Murzakanov1.42
- 5Carlos Ulberg1.25
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg
Finishes
How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.0%
0 / 0
Finish rate
KO
0
—
SUB
0
—
DEC
0
—
Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 4 landed total · career
Targets head · body · leg
75% Head
- Head 75%
- Body 0%
- Leg 25%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
75% Ground
- Distance 25%
- Clinch 0%
- Ground 75%
Strength of schedule in UFC
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1617
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 0 UFC wins
Toughest win
The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
—
Expected wins
How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
0.3
−0.3 wins below what this schedule implies
Career at a glance
Octagon time
8m
Avg fight time
7:40
Since last fight
27y 10mo
Title fights
0-1
Top light heavyweight
See full rankings → Source
Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from
John Lober on UFCStats →.
Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo —
not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.