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Roy Nelson

Inactive · Orthodox · 183 cm · reach 185 cm
Elo rating
1541 ±37
LCB 1492
Rank
—
—
UFC record
9-10-0
KO 8 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
-1
Δ90d +4 · Δ1y +4
Last fight
Apr 15, 2017
L by Decision

Elo history

19 fights · tap & drag
Dec 5, 2009 — W vs Brendan Schaub Δ+41Mar 31, 2010 — W vs Stefan Struve Δ+36Aug 7, 2010 — L vs Junior Dos Santos Δ-23May 28, 2011 — L vs Frank Mir Δ-24Oct 29, 2011 — W vs Mirko Filipovic Δ+29Feb 4, 2012 — L vs Fabricio Werdum Δ-18May 26, 2012 — W vs Dave Herman Δ+16Dec 15, 2012 — W vs Matt Mitrione Δ+22Apr 27, 2013 — W vs Cheick Kongo Δ+20Jun 15, 2013 — L vs Stipe Miocic Δ-18Oct 19, 2013 — L vs Daniel Cormier Δ-18Apr 11, 2014 — W vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira Δ+18Sep 20, 2014 — L vs Mark Hunt Δ-18Mar 14, 2015 — L vs Alistair Overeem Δ-18Sep 26, 2015 — L vs Josh Barnett Δ-12Feb 6, 2016 — W vs Jared Rosholt Δ+19Jul 7, 2016 — L vs Derrick Lewis Δ-15Sep 24, 2016 — W vs Antonio Silva Δ+16Apr 15, 2017 — L vs Alexander Volkov Δ-17 14901528156516021640 2011201320152017 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":163.3,"elo":1541,"date":"2009-12-05","opp":"Brendan Schaub","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":1,"x":60.8,"y":112.7,"elo":1577,"date":"2010-03-31","opp":"Stefan Struve","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":2,"x":101.7,"y":145.1,"elo":1554,"date":"2010-08-07","opp":"Junior Dos Santos","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":3,"x":194.8,"y":179.2,"elo":1530,"date":"2011-05-28","opp":"Frank Mir","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":4,"x":243.7,"y":137.6,"elo":1560,"date":"2011-10-29","opp":"Mirko Filipovic","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":5,"x":274.7,"y":162.7,"elo":1542,"date":"2012-02-04","opp":"Fabricio Werdum","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":6,"x":310.2,"y":139.4,"elo":1558,"date":"2012-05-26","opp":"Dave Herman","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":7,"x":374.6,"y":108.8,"elo":1580,"date":"2012-12-15","opp":"Matt Mitrione","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":8,"x":416.7,"y":80.8,"elo":1600,"date":"2013-04-27","opp":"Cheick Kongo","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":9,"x":432.3,"y":106.2,"elo":1582,"date":"2013-06-15","opp":"Stipe Miocic","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":10,"x":472.2,"y":131.8,"elo":1564,"date":"2013-10-19","opp":"Daniel Cormier","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":11,"x":527.3,"y":106.4,"elo":1582,"date":"2014-04-11","opp":"Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":12,"x":578.7,"y":131.6,"elo":1564,"date":"2014-09-20","opp":"Mark Hunt","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":13,"x":634.2,"y":157.6,"elo":1545,"date":"2015-03-14","opp":"Alistair Overeem","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":14,"x":696.3,"y":175.2,"elo":1533,"date":"2015-09-26","opp":"Josh Barnett","result":"L","delta":-12},{"i":15,"x":738.4,"y":147.8,"elo":1552,"date":"2016-02-06","opp":"Jared Rosholt","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":16,"x":786.6,"y":169,"elo":1537,"date":"2016-07-07","opp":"Derrick Lewis","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":17,"x":811.7,"y":145.7,"elo":1554,"date":"2016-09-24","opp":"Antonio Silva","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":18,"x":876,"y":169.8,"elo":1537,"date":"2017-04-15","opp":"Alexander Volkov","result":"L","delta":-17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Apr 15, 2017 Alexander Volkov L -17
Sep 24, 2016 Antonio Silva W +16
Jul 7, 2016 Derrick Lewis L -15
Feb 6, 2016 Jared Rosholt W +19
Sep 26, 2015 Josh Barnett L -12

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
1.95 avg 3.03
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
37% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.38 avg 2.72
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
46% avg 51%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.07 avg 1.32
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
30% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
65% avg 71%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.07 avg 0.30
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
89%
8 / 9
Finish rate
KO
8
89% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
11% of wins
KO: 8 (89%) 8 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (11%) 1
Finishes by round
8 total
R1
6 75%
R2
1 13%
R3
1 13%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1568
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
9.3
actual 0 vs expected