HonestElo
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Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Inactive · Orthodox · 191 cm · reach 196 cm
Elo rating
1530 ±37
LCB 1481
Rank
—
—
UFC record
5-6-0
KO 1 · Sub 2 · Dec 2
Streak
-3
Δ90d +8 · Δ1y +8
Last fight
Aug 1, 2015
L by Decision

Elo history

11 fights · tap & drag
Jul 7, 2007 — W vs Heath Herring Δ+29Feb 2, 2008 — W vs Tim Sylvia Δ+53Dec 27, 2008 — L vs Frank Mir Δ-38Aug 29, 2009 — W vs Randy Couture Δ+38Feb 20, 2010 — L vs Cain Velasquez Δ-27Aug 27, 2011 — W vs Brendan Schaub Δ+20Dec 10, 2011 — L vs Frank Mir Δ-16Oct 13, 2012 — W vs Dave Herman Δ+14Jun 8, 2013 — L vs Fabricio Werdum Δ-18Apr 11, 2014 — L vs Roy Nelson Δ-18Aug 1, 2015 — L vs Stefan Struve Δ-14 14821517155215871622 2009201120132015 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":165.1,"elo":1529,"date":"2007-07-07","opp":"Heath Herring","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":84.7,"y":84.8,"elo":1582,"date":"2008-02-02","opp":"Tim Sylvia","result":"W","delta":53},{"i":2,"x":179.8,"y":142.3,"elo":1544,"date":"2008-12-27","opp":"Frank Mir","result":"L","delta":-38},{"i":3,"x":250.7,"y":85,"elo":1582,"date":"2009-08-29","opp":"Randy Couture","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":4,"x":301.3,"y":126.2,"elo":1555,"date":"2010-02-20","opp":"Cain Velasquez","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":5,"x":461.1,"y":95.6,"elo":1575,"date":"2011-08-27","opp":"Brendan Schaub","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":6,"x":491.5,"y":119.5,"elo":1559,"date":"2011-12-10","opp":"Frank Mir","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":7,"x":580.5,"y":98.2,"elo":1573,"date":"2012-10-13","opp":"Dave Herman","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":8,"x":649.3,"y":126,"elo":1555,"date":"2013-06-08","opp":"Fabricio Werdum","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":9,"x":738.1,"y":153.3,"elo":1537,"date":"2014-04-11","opp":"Roy Nelson","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":10,"x":876,"y":175.2,"elo":1522,"date":"2015-08-01","opp":"Stefan Struve","result":"L","delta":-14}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 1, 2015 Stefan Struve L -14
Apr 11, 2014 Roy Nelson L -18
Jun 8, 2013 Fabricio Werdum L -18
Oct 13, 2012 Dave Herman W +14
Dec 10, 2011 Frank Mir L -16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.40 avg 3.03
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
41% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.27 avg 2.72
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
56% avg 51%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.09 avg 1.32
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
22% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
38% avg 71%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.36 avg 0.30
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
60%
3 / 5
Finish rate
KO
1
20% of wins
SUB
2
40% of wins
DEC
2
40% of wins
KO: 1 (20%) 1 Sub: 2 (40%) 2 Dec: 2 (40%) 2
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
1 33%
R2
1 33%
R3
1 33%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1562
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.0
actual 0 vs expected