HonestElo
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Alexa Grasso

Active #9 womens flyweight · Orthodox · 165 cm · reach 168 cm
Elo rating
1607 ±34
LCB 1563
Rank
#9
top 22% of division
UFC record
9-5-1
KO 1 · Sub 2 · Dec 6
Streak
+1
Δ90d +21 · Δ1y +8
Last fight
Mar 28, 2026
W by KO

Elo history

15 fights · tap & drag
Nov 5, 2016 — W vs Heather Clark Δ+29Feb 4, 2017 — L vs Felice Herrig Δ-28Aug 5, 2017 — W vs Randa Markos Δ+28May 19, 2018 — L vs Tatiana Suarez Δ-29Jun 8, 2019 — W vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz Δ+31Sep 21, 2019 — L vs Carla Esparza Δ-16Aug 29, 2020 — W vs Ji Yeon Kim Δ+17Feb 13, 2021 — W vs Maycee Barber Δ+18Mar 26, 2022 — W vs Joanne Wood Δ+16Oct 15, 2022 — W vs Viviane Araujo Δ+17Mar 4, 2023 — W vs Valentina Shevchenko Δ+31Sep 16, 2023 — D vs Valentina Shevchenko Δ+4Sep 14, 2024 — L vs Valentina Shevchenko Δ-17May 10, 2025 — L vs Natalia Silva Δ-14Mar 28, 2026 — W vs Maycee Barber Δ+21 14591508155816071656 20182020202220242026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":161,"elo":1529,"date":"2016-11-05","opp":"Heather Clark","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":46.6,"y":191.5,"elo":1501,"date":"2017-02-04","opp":"Felice Herrig","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":2,"x":91.8,"y":161.6,"elo":1528,"date":"2017-08-05","opp":"Randa Markos","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":3,"x":163.1,"y":192.9,"elo":1499,"date":"2018-05-19","opp":"Tatiana Suarez","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":4,"x":258.7,"y":159.5,"elo":1530,"date":"2019-06-08","opp":"Karolina Kowalkiewicz","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":5,"x":284.8,"y":176.4,"elo":1515,"date":"2019-09-21","opp":"Carla Esparza","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":6,"x":370,"y":158.3,"elo":1531,"date":"2020-08-29","opp":"Ji Yeon Kim","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":7,"x":411.7,"y":139.4,"elo":1549,"date":"2021-02-13","opp":"Maycee Barber","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":8,"x":512.6,"y":122.2,"elo":1565,"date":"2022-03-26","opp":"Joanne Wood","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":9,"x":563,"y":104.2,"elo":1582,"date":"2022-10-15","opp":"Viviane Araujo","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":10,"x":597.8,"y":70.9,"elo":1612,"date":"2023-03-04","opp":"Valentina Shevchenko","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":11,"x":646.5,"y":67.1,"elo":1616,"date":"2023-09-16","opp":"Valentina Shevchenko","result":"D","delta":4},{"i":12,"x":736.9,"y":85.2,"elo":1599,"date":"2024-09-14","opp":"Valentina Shevchenko","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":13,"x":796,"y":100,"elo":1585,"date":"2025-05-10","opp":"Natalia Silva","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":14,"x":876,"y":77,"elo":1607,"date":"2026-03-28","opp":"Maycee Barber","result":"W","delta":21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 28, 2026 Maycee Barber W +21
May 10, 2025 Natalia Silva L -14
Sep 14, 2024 Valentina Shevchenko L -17
Sep 16, 2023 Valentina Shevchenko D +4
Mar 4, 2023 Valentina Shevchenko W +31

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.00 avg 3.77
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
41% avg 45%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.61 avg 3.55
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
59% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.39 avg 1.36
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
35% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
55% avg 64%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.65 avg 0.43
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
33%
3 / 9
Finish rate
KO
1
11% of wins
SUB
2
22% of wins
DEC
6
67% of wins
KO: 1 (11%) 1 Sub: 2 (22%) 2 Dec: 6 (67%) 6
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
2 67%
R2
R3
R4
1 33%
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1668
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.9
actual +2 vs expected