HonestElo
← bantamweight

Francisco Rivera

Inactive · Orthodox · 173 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1501 ±35
LCB 1455
Rank
—
—
UFC record
4-6-0
KO 3 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
-3
Δ90d +12 · Δ1y +12
Last fight
Jul 30, 2016
L by Decision

Elo history

10 fights · tap & drag
Jun 4, 2011 — L vs Reuben Duran Δ-36May 15, 2012 — W vs Alex Soto Δ+30Feb 2, 2013 — W vs Edwin Figueroa Δ+36Nov 6, 2013 — W vs George Roop Δ+29May 24, 2014 — L vs Takeya Mizugaki Δ-27Dec 6, 2014 — L vs Urijah Faber Δ-15Jun 6, 2015 — W vs Alex Caceres Δ+17Sep 5, 2015 — L vs John Lineker Δ-15Feb 27, 2016 — L vs Brad Pickett Δ-17Jul 30, 2016 — L vs Erik Perez Δ-13 14241468151215551599 20122013201420152016 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":187.6,"elo":1464,"date":"2011-06-04","opp":"Reuben Duran","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":1,"x":180.6,"y":151.9,"elo":1494,"date":"2012-05-15","opp":"Alex Soto","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":299.6,"y":107.8,"elo":1530,"date":"2013-02-02","opp":"Edwin Figueroa","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":3,"x":424.9,"y":72.4,"elo":1559,"date":"2013-11-06","opp":"George Roop","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":514.9,"y":105.5,"elo":1532,"date":"2014-05-24","opp":"Takeya Mizugaki","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":5,"x":603.6,"y":124.1,"elo":1517,"date":"2014-12-06","opp":"Urijah Faber","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":6,"x":686,"y":103.2,"elo":1534,"date":"2015-06-06","opp":"Alex Caceres","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":7,"x":727.1,"y":121.6,"elo":1519,"date":"2015-09-05","opp":"John Lineker","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":8,"x":806.3,"y":142.8,"elo":1501,"date":"2016-02-27","opp":"Brad Pickett","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":9,"x":876,"y":158,"elo":1489,"date":"2016-07-30","opp":"Erik Perez","result":"L","delta":-13}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 30, 2016 Erik Perez L -13
Feb 27, 2016 Brad Pickett L -17
Sep 5, 2015 John Lineker L -15
Jun 6, 2015 Alex Caceres W +17
Dec 6, 2014 Urijah Faber L -15

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.21 avg 3.92
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
39% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.65 avg 3.04
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
68% avg 58%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.91 avg 1.64
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
64% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
68% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.52 avg 0.37
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
75%
3 / 4
Finish rate
KO
3
75% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
25% of wins
KO: 3 (75%) 3 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (25%) 1
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
1 33%
R2
2 67%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1549
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.8
actual -1 vs expected