HonestElo
← womens bantamweight

Melissa Croden

Active Provisional #24 womens bantamweight
Elo rating
1519 ±39
LCB 1469
Rank
#24
top 64% of division
UFC record
1-1-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 · Dec 0
Streak
-1
Δ90d +8 · Δ1y +19
Last fight
Dec 13, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

2 fights · tap & drag
Oct 18, 2025 — W vs Tainara Lisboa Δ+36Dec 13, 2025 — L vs Luana Santos Δ-25 14711497152315491576 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":105.1,"elo":1536,"date":"2025-10-18","opp":"Tainara Lisboa","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":1,"x":876,"y":154.9,"elo":1511,"date":"2025-12-13","opp":"Luana Santos","result":"L","delta":-25}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Dec 13, 2025 Luana Santos L -25
Oct 18, 2025 Tainara Lisboa W +36

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.03 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
49% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.80 avg 3.04
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
53% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.00 avg 1.30
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
50% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
67% avg 68%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.39
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 4
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
1 / 1
Finish rate
KO
1
100% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 1 (100%) 1 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
R2
R3
1 100%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1556
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
0.9
actual 0 vs expected