HonestElo
← womens strawweight

Carla Esparza "Cookie Monster"

Active #14 womens strawweight · age 38 · Orthodox · 5'1" 155 cm · 115 lb 52 kg · reach 63" 160 cm
At a glance
Elo rating
1531
Global Elo 1579 ±37
Rank
#14
top 28% of division
UFC record
10-6-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 8
Streak
-2
Δ90d -7 · Δ1y -7
Last fight
Oct 5, 2024
Loss by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
3h 44m
Avg fight time
14:01
Title fights
2-2
Bonuses
2
Fights per year
1.6
Ground control
1h 3m
Since last fight
1y 9mo

Honest Elo history

16 fights · tap & drag
Dec 12, 2014 — W vs Rose Namajunas Δ+41Mar 14, 2015 — L vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk Δ-39Apr 23, 2016 — W vs Juliana Lima Δ+31Feb 19, 2017 — L vs Randa Markos Δ-34Jun 25, 2017 — W vs Maryna Moroz Δ+34Dec 30, 2017 — W vs Cynthia Calvillo Δ+19Jun 9, 2018 — L vs Claudia Gadelha Δ-17Sep 8, 2018 — L vs Tatiana Suarez Δ-15Apr 27, 2019 — W vs Virna Jandiroba Δ+15Sep 21, 2019 — W vs Alexa Grasso Δ+16May 9, 2020 — W vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez Δ+16Jul 25, 2020 — W vs Marina Rodriguez Δ+16May 22, 2021 — W vs Yan Xiaonan Δ+21May 7, 2022 — W vs Rose Namajunas Δ+23Nov 12, 2022 — L vs Zhang Weili Δ-22Oct 5, 2024 — L vs Tecia Pennington Δ-18 14001450150015501600 20162018202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":271.3,"elo":1487,"date":"2014-12-12","opp":"Rose Namajunas","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":1,"x":108.5,"y":334.5,"elo":1447,"date":"2015-03-14","opp":"Joanna Jedrzejczyk","result":"L","delta":-39},{"i":2,"x":190,"y":284.6,"elo":1478,"date":"2016-04-23","opp":"Juliana Lima","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":250.7,"y":339,"elo":1444,"date":"2017-02-19","opp":"Randa Markos","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":4,"x":276,"y":284.6,"elo":1478,"date":"2017-06-25","opp":"Maryna Moroz","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":5,"x":313.7,"y":255.1,"elo":1497,"date":"2017-12-30","opp":"Cynthia Calvillo","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":6,"x":346.1,"y":281.5,"elo":1480,"date":"2018-06-09","opp":"Claudia Gadelha","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":7,"x":364.3,"y":305.5,"elo":1465,"date":"2018-09-08","opp":"Tatiana Suarez","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":8,"x":410.7,"y":281.4,"elo":1480,"date":"2019-04-27","opp":"Virna Jandiroba","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":9,"x":440.3,"y":256.1,"elo":1496,"date":"2019-09-21","opp":"Alexa Grasso","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":486.7,"y":230.2,"elo":1512,"date":"2020-05-09","opp":"Michelle Waterson-Gomez","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":11,"x":502.1,"y":205.2,"elo":1528,"date":"2020-07-25","opp":"Marina Rodriguez","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":12,"x":562.6,"y":171.9,"elo":1549,"date":"2021-05-22","opp":"Yan Xiaonan","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":13,"x":632.9,"y":135,"elo":1572,"date":"2022-05-07","opp":"Rose Namajunas","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":14,"x":670.8,"y":170.3,"elo":1550,"date":"2022-11-12","opp":"Zhang Weili","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":15,"x":810,"y":199.9,"elo":1531,"date":"2024-10-05","opp":"Tecia Pennington","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 5, 2024 Tecia Pennington L -18
Nov 12, 2022 Zhang Weili L -22
May 7, 2022 Rose Namajunas W +23
May 22, 2021 Yan Xiaonan W +21
Jul 25, 2020 Marina Rodriguez W +16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
20%
2 / 10
Finish rate
KO
1
10% of wins
SUB
1
10% of wins
DEC
8
80% of wins
KO: 1 (10%) 1 Sub: 1 (10%) 1 Dec: 8 (80%) 8
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
R2
1 50%
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 492 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
74% Head
  • Head 74%
  • Body 14%
  • Leg 12%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
57% Distance
  • Distance 57%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 30%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
50%
of losses by finish
3 of 6 · usually R2
2 KO/TKO 1 Sub 3 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1607
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
2
of 10 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Rose Namajunas
Elo 1656 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
7.7
+2.3 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 16 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1549
Notable wins
Rose Namajunas 1656 Yan Xiaonan 1630

Top womens strawweight

See full rankings →
Tatiana Suarez
#1 · Elo 1656
Gillian Robertson
#2 · Elo 1601
Mackenzie Dern C
#3 · Elo 1574
Virna Jandiroba
#4 · Elo 1569
Alexia Thainara
#5 · Elo 1561
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Carla Esparza on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.