HonestElo
← womens strawweight

Carla Esparza

Active #13 womens strawweight · Orthodox · 155 cm · reach 160 cm
Elo rating
1582 ±36
LCB 1534
Rank
#13
top 24% of division
UFC record
10-6-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 8
Streak
-2
Δ90d -4 · Δ1y -4
Last fight
Oct 5, 2024
L by Decision

Elo history

16 fights · tap & drag
Dec 12, 2014 — W vs Rose Namajunas Δ+41Mar 14, 2015 — L vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk Δ-39Apr 23, 2016 — W vs Juliana Lima Δ+31Feb 19, 2017 — L vs Randa Markos Δ-34Jun 25, 2017 — W vs Maryna Moroz Δ+34Dec 30, 2017 — W vs Cynthia Calvillo Δ+19Jun 9, 2018 — L vs Claudia Gadelha Δ-17Sep 8, 2018 — L vs Tatiana Suarez Δ-15Apr 27, 2019 — W vs Virna Jandiroba Δ+15Sep 21, 2019 — W vs Alexa Grasso Δ+16May 9, 2020 — W vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez Δ+16Jul 25, 2020 — W vs Marina Rodriguez Δ+16May 22, 2021 — W vs Yan Xiaonan Δ+21May 7, 2022 — W vs Rose Namajunas Δ+23Nov 12, 2022 — L vs Zhang Weili Δ-22Oct 5, 2024 — L vs Tecia Pennington Δ-18 14591511156316151667 20162018202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":151.9,"elo":1541,"date":"2014-12-12","opp":"Rose Namajunas","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":1,"x":45.9,"y":192.3,"elo":1502,"date":"2015-03-14","opp":"Joanna Jedrzejczyk","result":"L","delta":-39},{"i":2,"x":142.4,"y":160.4,"elo":1533,"date":"2016-04-23","opp":"Juliana Lima","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":214.1,"y":195.1,"elo":1499,"date":"2017-02-19","opp":"Randa Markos","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":4,"x":244.1,"y":160.4,"elo":1533,"date":"2017-06-25","opp":"Maryna Moroz","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":5,"x":288.7,"y":141.6,"elo":1552,"date":"2017-12-30","opp":"Cynthia Calvillo","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":6,"x":327,"y":158.5,"elo":1535,"date":"2018-06-09","opp":"Claudia Gadelha","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":7,"x":348.6,"y":173.8,"elo":1520,"date":"2018-09-08","opp":"Tatiana Suarez","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":8,"x":403.5,"y":158.4,"elo":1535,"date":"2019-04-27","opp":"Virna Jandiroba","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":9,"x":438.5,"y":142.2,"elo":1551,"date":"2019-09-21","opp":"Alexa Grasso","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":493.4,"y":125.7,"elo":1567,"date":"2020-05-09","opp":"Michelle Waterson-Gomez","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":11,"x":511.7,"y":109.7,"elo":1583,"date":"2020-07-25","opp":"Marina Rodriguez","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":12,"x":583.2,"y":88.5,"elo":1604,"date":"2021-05-22","opp":"Yan Xiaonan","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":13,"x":666.4,"y":64.9,"elo":1627,"date":"2022-05-07","opp":"Rose Namajunas","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":14,"x":711.3,"y":87.4,"elo":1605,"date":"2022-11-12","opp":"Zhang Weili","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":15,"x":876,"y":106.3,"elo":1586,"date":"2024-10-05","opp":"Tecia Pennington","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 5, 2024 Tecia Pennington L -18
Nov 12, 2022 Zhang Weili L -22
May 7, 2022 Rose Namajunas W +23
May 22, 2021 Yan Xiaonan W +21
Jul 25, 2020 Marina Rodriguez W +16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.09 avg 3.89
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
39% avg 48%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.74 avg 3.35
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
54% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
3.13 avg 1.80
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
36% avg 46%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
47% avg 67%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.26 avg 0.53
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 4
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
20%
2 / 10
Finish rate
KO
1
10% of wins
SUB
1
10% of wins
DEC
8
80% of wins
KO: 1 (10%) 1 Sub: 1 (10%) 1 Dec: 8 (80%) 8
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
R2
1 50%
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1607
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
7.7
actual +2 vs expected