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Lucas Alexander "The Lion"

Active #73 featherweight · age 30 · Orthodox · 5'11" 180 cm · 145 lb 66 kg · reach 73" 185 cm
At a glance
  • Performance of the Night in last fight
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
Elo rating
1389
Global Elo 1437 ±37
Rank
#73
top 94% of division
UFC record
1-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
-2
Δ90d +6 · Δ1y +6
Last fight
Feb 1, 2025
Loss by KO · R2
Career at a glance
Octagon time
28m
Avg fight time
6:59
Bonuses
2
Fights per year
1.7
Since last fight
1y 5mo

Honest Elo history

4 fights · tap & drag
Oct 15, 2022 — L vs Joanderson Brito Δ-32Mar 25, 2023 — W vs Steven Peterson Δ+30Nov 18, 2023 — L vs Jeka Saragih Δ-37Feb 1, 2025 — L vs Bogdan Grad Δ-29 1360138014001420144014601480 202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":236.4,"elo":1425,"date":"2022-10-15","opp":"Joanderson Brito","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":1,"x":228,"y":157.2,"elo":1455,"date":"2023-03-25","opp":"Steven Peterson","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":432,"y":255.3,"elo":1418,"date":"2023-11-18","opp":"Jeka Saragih","result":"L","delta":-37},{"i":3,"x":810,"y":333.7,"elo":1389,"date":"2025-02-01","opp":"Bogdan Grad","result":"L","delta":-29}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 1, 2025 Bogdan Grad L -29
Nov 18, 2023 Jeka Saragih L -37
Mar 25, 2023 Steven Peterson W +30
Oct 15, 2022 Joanderson Brito L -32

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 1
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (100%) 1

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 131 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
52% Head
  • Head 52%
  • Body 22%
  • Leg 26%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
91% Distance
  • Distance 91%
  • Clinch 3%
  • Ground 6%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
100%
of losses by finish
3 of 3 · usually R1
2 KO/TKO 1 Sub 0 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1487
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Steven Peterson
Elo 1479 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
2.0
−1.0 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 4 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1511
1500

Top featherweight

See full rankings →
Alexander Volkanovski C
#1 · Elo 1697
Movsar Evloev
#2 · Elo 1693
Aljamain Sterling
#3 · Elo 1670
Lerone Murphy
#4 · Elo 1649
Arnold Allen
#5 · Elo 1635
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Lucas Alexander on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.