HonestElo
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Lucas Alexander

Active #93 featherweight
Elo rating
1434 ±34
LCB 1390
Rank
#93
top 96% of division
UFC record
1-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
-2
Δ90d +2 · Δ1y +2
Last fight
Feb 1, 2025
L by KO

Elo history

4 fights · tap & drag
Oct 15, 2022 — L vs Joanderson Brito Δ-32Mar 25, 2023 — W vs Steven Peterson Δ+30Nov 18, 2023 — L vs Jeka Saragih Δ-37Feb 1, 2025 — L vs Bogdan Grad Δ-29 13911428146515011538 202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":125.1,"elo":1468,"date":"2022-10-15","opp":"Joanderson Brito","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":1,"x":187.3,"y":82,"elo":1498,"date":"2023-03-25","opp":"Steven Peterson","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":428.7,"y":135.4,"elo":1461,"date":"2023-11-18","opp":"Jeka Saragih","result":"L","delta":-37},{"i":3,"x":876,"y":178,"elo":1431,"date":"2025-02-01","opp":"Bogdan Grad","result":"L","delta":-29}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 1, 2025 Bogdan Grad L -29
Nov 18, 2023 Jeka Saragih L -37
Mar 25, 2023 Steven Peterson W +30
Oct 15, 2022 Joanderson Brito L -32

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.74 avg 3.76
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
57% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.29 avg 2.97
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
57% avg 57%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.00 avg 1.39
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
0% avg 41%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
60% avg 63%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.43
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 1
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (100%) 1

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1487
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.0
actual -1 vs expected