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Justin Tafa "Bad Man"

Active #35 heavyweight · age 32 · Southpaw · 6'0" 183 cm · 264 lb 120 kg · reach 74" 188 cm
At a glance
  • Performance of the Night in last fight
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 100% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 100% of wins finished in round 1
Elo rating
1440
Global Elo 1488 ±37
Rank
#35
top 83% of division
UFC record
4-5-0
KO 4 · Sub 0 · Dec 0
Streak
-2
Δ90d +4 · Δ1y +4
Last fight
Feb 8, 2025
Loss by KO · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
54m
Avg fight time
6:01
Bonuses
4
Fights per year
1.7
Since last fight
1y 4mo

Honest Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Oct 5, 2019 — L vs Yorgan De Castro Δ-33Feb 8, 2020 — W vs Juan Adams Δ+33Jan 16, 2021 — L vs Carlos Felipe Δ-29May 22, 2021 — L vs Jared Vanderaa Δ-29Dec 18, 2021 — W vs Harry Hunsucker Δ+36Feb 11, 2023 — W vs Parker Porter Δ+20Sep 9, 2023 — W vs Austen Lane Δ+19Mar 23, 2024 — L vs Karl Williams Δ-15Feb 8, 2025 — L vs Tallison Teixeira Δ-18 137514001425145014751500 202020212022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":287.4,"elo":1423,"date":"2019-10-05","opp":"Yorgan De Castro","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":1,"x":136.5,"y":201.9,"elo":1456,"date":"2020-02-08","opp":"Juan Adams","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":262.9,"y":275.3,"elo":1428,"date":"2021-01-16","opp":"Carlos Felipe","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":3,"x":309.4,"y":350.1,"elo":1398,"date":"2021-05-22","opp":"Jared Vanderaa","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":4,"x":386.8,"y":258.4,"elo":1434,"date":"2021-12-18","opp":"Harry Hunsucker","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":5,"x":541.6,"y":206.7,"elo":1454,"date":"2023-02-11","opp":"Parker Porter","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":6,"x":619,"y":159.4,"elo":1473,"date":"2023-09-09","opp":"Austen Lane","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":7,"x":691.3,"y":196.8,"elo":1458,"date":"2024-03-23","opp":"Karl Williams","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":8,"x":810,"y":244.4,"elo":1440,"date":"2025-02-08","opp":"Tallison Teixeira","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 8, 2025 Tallison Teixeira L -18
Mar 23, 2024 Karl Williams L -15
Sep 9, 2023 Austen Lane W +19
Feb 11, 2023 Parker Porter W +20
Dec 18, 2021 Harry Hunsucker W +36

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
4 / 4
Finish rate
KO
4
100% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 4 (100%) 4 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
4 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 221 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
58% Head
  • Head 58%
  • Body 28%
  • Leg 14%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
85% Distance
  • Distance 85%
  • Clinch 12%
  • Ground 4%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
40%
of losses by finish
2 of 5 · usually R1
2 KO/TKO 0 Sub 3 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1506
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Parker Porter
Elo 1513 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
4.4
−0.4 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 9 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1500

Top heavyweight

See full rankings →
Ciryl Gane IC
#1 · Elo 1691
Alexander Volkov
#2 · Elo 1656
Alex Pereira
#3 · Elo 1655
Tom Aspinall C
#4 · Elo 1654
Sergei Pavlovich
#5 · Elo 1619
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Justin Tafa on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.