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Justin Tafa

Active #47 heavyweight · Southpaw · 183 cm · reach 188 cm
Elo rating
1485 ±38
LCB 1435
Rank
#47
top 90% of division
UFC record
4-5-0
KO 4 · Sub 0 · Dec 0
Streak
-2
Δ90d +1 · Δ1y +1
Last fight
Feb 8, 2025
L by KO

Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Oct 5, 2019 — L vs Yorgan De Castro Δ-33Feb 8, 2020 — W vs Juan Adams Δ+33Jan 16, 2021 — L vs Carlos Felipe Δ-29May 22, 2021 — L vs Jared Vanderaa Δ-29Dec 18, 2021 — W vs Harry Hunsucker Δ+36Feb 11, 2023 — W vs Parker Porter Δ+20Sep 9, 2023 — W vs Austen Lane Δ+19Mar 23, 2024 — L vs Karl Williams Δ-15Feb 8, 2025 — L vs Tallison Teixeira Δ-18 14021441148015181557 202020212022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":147.5,"elo":1467,"date":"2019-10-05","opp":"Yorgan De Castro","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":1,"x":79,"y":101.7,"elo":1500,"date":"2020-02-08","opp":"Juan Adams","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":228.6,"y":141,"elo":1472,"date":"2021-01-16","opp":"Carlos Felipe","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":3,"x":283.6,"y":181.1,"elo":1442,"date":"2021-05-22","opp":"Jared Vanderaa","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":4,"x":375.2,"y":132,"elo":1478,"date":"2021-12-18","opp":"Harry Hunsucker","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":5,"x":558.4,"y":104.3,"elo":1498,"date":"2023-02-11","opp":"Parker Porter","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":6,"x":650,"y":78.9,"elo":1517,"date":"2023-09-09","opp":"Austen Lane","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":7,"x":735.5,"y":98.9,"elo":1502,"date":"2024-03-23","opp":"Karl Williams","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":8,"x":876,"y":124.4,"elo":1484,"date":"2025-02-08","opp":"Tallison Teixeira","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 8, 2025 Tallison Teixeira L -18
Mar 23, 2024 Karl Williams L -15
Sep 9, 2023 Austen Lane W +19
Feb 11, 2023 Parker Porter W +20
Dec 18, 2021 Harry Hunsucker W +36

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.95 avg 3.08
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
55% avg 50%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.68 avg 2.78
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
47% avg 52%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.00 avg 1.28
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
0% avg 40%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
53% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.31
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
4 / 4
Finish rate
KO
4
100% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 4 (100%) 4 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
4 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1506
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.4
actual 0 vs expected