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Rodrigo Nascimento

Active #23 heavyweight · Orthodox · 188 cm · reach 203 cm
Elo rating
1554 ±36
LCB 1508
Rank
#23
top 43% of division
UFC record
4-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 1 · Dec 3
Streak
-2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y 0
Last fight
Nov 2, 2024
L by Decision

Elo history

7 fights · tap & drag
May 16, 2020 — W vs Don'Tale Mayes Δ+30Oct 10, 2020 — L vs Chris Daukaus Δ-33Sep 17, 2022 — W vs Tanner Boser Δ+32May 20, 2023 — W vs Ilir Latifi Δ+33Nov 4, 2023 — W vs Don'Tale Mayes Δ+24May 11, 2024 — L vs Derrick Lewis Δ-17Nov 2, 2024 — L vs Alexandr Romanov Δ-15 14571500154215841626 2021202220232024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":144.4,"elo":1530,"date":"2020-05-16","opp":"Don'Tale Mayes","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":1,"x":100.8,"y":185.7,"elo":1497,"date":"2020-10-10","opp":"Chris Daukaus","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":2,"x":470.1,"y":145.3,"elo":1530,"date":"2022-09-17","opp":"Tanner Boser","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":3,"x":598.1,"y":104.3,"elo":1562,"date":"2023-05-20","opp":"Ilir Latifi","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":4,"x":685.9,"y":74.3,"elo":1586,"date":"2023-11-04","opp":"Don'Tale Mayes","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":5,"x":784.6,"y":95.8,"elo":1569,"date":"2024-05-11","opp":"Derrick Lewis","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":6,"x":876,"y":114.4,"elo":1554,"date":"2024-11-02","opp":"Alexandr Romanov","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 2, 2024 Alexandr Romanov L -15
May 11, 2024 Derrick Lewis L -17
Nov 4, 2023 Don'Tale Mayes W +24
May 20, 2023 Ilir Latifi W +33
Sep 17, 2022 Tanner Boser W +32

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.94 avg 3.08
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
46% avg 50%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.51 avg 2.76
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
46% avg 52%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.00 avg 1.29
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
46% avg 40%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
59% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.33 avg 0.31
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
25%
1 / 4
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
1
25% of wins
DEC
3
75% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 1 (25%) 1 Dec: 3 (75%) 3
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
R2
1 100%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1565
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.4
actual +1 vs expected