HonestElo
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Luke Barnatt

Inactive · Orthodox · 198 cm · reach 196 cm
Elo rating
1517 ±41
LCB 1464
Rank
—
—
UFC record
3-3-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 1
Streak
-3
Δ90d +9 · Δ1y +9
Last fight
May 16, 2015
L by Decision

Elo history

6 fights · tap & drag
Apr 13, 2013 — W vs Collin Hart Δ+29Oct 26, 2013 — W vs Andrew Craig Δ+37Mar 8, 2014 — W vs Mats Nilsson Δ+27May 31, 2014 — L vs Sean Strickland Δ-34Nov 22, 2014 — L vs Roger Narvaez Δ-36May 16, 2015 — L vs Mark Munoz Δ-15 14681509155015911633 20142015 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":157.6,"elo":1529,"date":"2013-04-13","opp":"Collin Hart","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":242.9,"y":110.1,"elo":1566,"date":"2013-10-26","opp":"Andrew Craig","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":2,"x":391.4,"y":75.5,"elo":1593,"date":"2014-03-08","opp":"Mats Nilsson","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":3,"x":485.2,"y":118.7,"elo":1559,"date":"2014-05-31","opp":"Sean Strickland","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":4,"x":680.6,"y":165.7,"elo":1523,"date":"2014-11-22","opp":"Roger Narvaez","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":5,"x":876,"y":184.5,"elo":1508,"date":"2015-05-16","opp":"Mark Munoz","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 16, 2015 Mark Munoz L -15
Nov 22, 2014 Roger Narvaez L -36
May 31, 2014 Sean Strickland L -34
Mar 8, 2014 Mats Nilsson W +27
Oct 26, 2013 Andrew Craig W +37

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.23 avg 3.81
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
36% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.69 avg 3.07
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
59% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.60 avg 1.42
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
43% avg 45%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
64% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.40 avg 0.48
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
0 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
2 / 3
Finish rate
KO
1
33% of wins
SUB
1
33% of wins
DEC
1
33% of wins
KO: 1 (33%) 1 Sub: 1 (33%) 1 Dec: 1 (33%) 1
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
1 50%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1524
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.2
actual 0 vs expected