Juan Diaz "Pegajoso"
Active Provisional · age 28 · Orthodox ·
5'8" 173 cm ·
135 lb 61 kg · reach
69" 175 cm
At a glance
- Performance of the Night in last fight
- 100% of wins by submission
Elo rating
1510
Global Elo 1536 ±20
Rank
—
—
UFC record
1-0-0
KO 0 · Sub 1 · Dec 0
Streak
+1
Δ90d +1 · Δ1y +36
Last fight
May 16, 2026
Win by Submission · R2
UFC debut the one fight we've seen
Won by submission · Round 2
Debut opponent
Malcolm Wellmaker 1526
Elo at fight time · #57
The model gave Diaz a 46% pre-fight chance against this opponent. He came through.
Debut performance
1.4
Strikes landed / min
52%
Striking accuracy
55%
Striking defense
6.2m
Control / 15 min
This rating is provisional — built from a single UFC fight, so its uncertainty band is wide (σ ≈ 20). It will sharpen with every bout, and can move a lot early on. How the model handles thin samples →
Career at a glance
Octagon time
9m
Avg fight time
9:08
Since last fight
3mo
Bonuses
1
1 post-fight bonus
- Performance of the Night ×1
UFC awards a discretionary bonus for the night's best fight and finishes. Juan Diaz has earned 1. The payout was $50,000 from 2014 to 2025 and $100,000 from 2026; select cards have paid more.
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Honest Elo history
1 fights · tap & dragLast fights
Elo-based expectation · not betting advice| Date | Opponent | Result | Δ Elo |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Malcolm Wellmaker | W | +36 |
1 post-fight bonus
- Performance of the Night ×1
UFC awards a discretionary bonus for the night's best fight and finishes. Juan Diaz has earned 1. The payout was $50,000 from 2014 to 2025 and $100,000 from 2026; select cards have paid more.
Performance
Fighter vs division avg
L1L3L5
Top 5 · bantamweight
Strikes Landed per Minute
- 1Victor Henry7.17
- 2Sean O'Malley5.97
- 3Adrian Yanez5.92
- 4Payton Talbott5.87
- 5Davey Grant5.58
SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Top 5 · bantamweight
Striking Accuracy
- 1Changho Lee65%
- 2Sean O'Malley60%
- 3Nathan Fletcher60%
- 4Bryce Mitchell59%
- 5Payton Talbott59%
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
Top 5 · bantamweight
Lowest Strikes Absorbed
- 1Raul Rosas Jr.1.34
- 2Montel Jackson1.37
- 3Bryce Mitchell1.51
- 4Jafel Filho1.52
- 5Rinya Nakamura1.52
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Top 5 · bantamweight
Striking Defense
- 1Suyoung You70%
- 2David Martinez70%
- 3Aiemann Zahabi68%
- 4Santiago Luna68%
- 5Felipe Lima65%
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
Top 5 · bantamweight
Takedowns per 15 Minutes
- 1Raul Rosas Jr.6.76
- 2Merab Dvalishvili5.97
- 3Rafael Estevam5.02
- 4Dan Argueta4.36
- 5Cristian Quinonez4.12
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
Top 5 · bantamweight
Takedown Accuracy
- 1Rinya Nakamura88%
- 2Elijah Smith75%
- 3Santiago Luna71%
- 4Montel Jackson61%
- 5Benardo Sopaj60%
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
Top 5 · bantamweight
Takedown Defense
- 1David Martinez100%
- 2Rinya Nakamura100%
- 3Quang Le100%
- 4Marcus Mcghee90%
- 5Xiao Long88%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Top 5 · bantamweight
Submission Attempts per 15 Min
- 1Toshiomi Kazama1.89
- 2Jafel Filho1.84
- 3Saimon Oliveira1.67
- 4Colby Thicknesse1.67
- 5Da'Mon Blackshear1.48
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Top 5 · bantamweight
Control Time per 15 Minutes
- 1Raul Rosas Jr.8.53
- 2Bryce Mitchell8.25
- 3Rinya Nakamura7.81
- 4Rafael Estevam7.79
- 5Dan Argueta6.10
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
Top 5 · bantamweight
Knockdowns per 15 Minutes
- 1Adrian Yanez1.41
- 2Montel Jackson1.26
- 3Malcolm Wellmaker1.04
- 4Bekzat Almakhan0.98
- 5Rinya Nakamura0.97
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg
Finishes
How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.100%
1 / 1
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
1
100% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
R2 1 100%
R3
R4
R5
Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 13 landed total · career
Targets head · body · leg
54% Leg
- Head 23%
- Body 23%
- Leg 54%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
77% Distance
- Distance 77%
- Clinch 15%
- Ground 8%
Strength of schedule in UFC
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1526
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win
The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Malcolm Wellmaker
Elo 1526 at fight time
Expected wins
How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
0.5
+0.5 wins above what this schedule implies
Career at a glance
Octagon time
9m
Avg fight time
9:08
Since last fight
3mo
Bonuses
1
Top bantamweight
See full rankings → Source
Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from
Juan Diaz on UFCStats →.
Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo —
not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.