HonestElo
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Dan Miller

Inactive · Orthodox · 185 cm · reach 188 cm
Elo rating
1507 ±31
LCB 1466
Rank
—
—
UFC record
6-7-0
KO 0 · Sub 4 · Dec 2
Streak
-2
Δ90d +12 · Δ1y +12
Last fight
Jul 12, 2015
L by Decision

Elo history

13 fights · tap & drag
Sep 17, 2008 — W vs Rob Kimmons Δ+36Oct 25, 2008 — W vs Matt Horwich Δ+26Feb 7, 2009 — W vs Jake Rosholt Δ+27May 23, 2009 — L vs Chael Sonnen Δ-39Feb 6, 2010 — L vs Demian Maia Δ-22May 29, 2010 — L vs Michael Bisping Δ-12Aug 28, 2010 — W vs John Salter Δ+18Dec 11, 2010 — W vs Joe Doerksen Δ+11Mar 19, 2011 — L vs Nate Marquardt Δ-13Aug 27, 2011 — L vs Rousimar Palhares Δ-13Jun 22, 2012 — W vs Ricardo Funch Δ+13Mar 16, 2013 — L vs Jordan Mein Δ-20Jul 12, 2015 — L vs Trevor Smith Δ-17 14541498154215851629 201020122014 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":136.8,"elo":1536,"date":"2008-09-17","opp":"Rob Kimmons","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":1,"x":37,"y":105.6,"elo":1562,"date":"2008-10-25","opp":"Matt Horwich","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":2,"x":72.9,"y":72.5,"elo":1589,"date":"2009-02-07","opp":"Jake Rosholt","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":3,"x":108.9,"y":120.2,"elo":1550,"date":"2009-05-23","opp":"Chael Sonnen","result":"L","delta":-39},{"i":4,"x":197.5,"y":147.4,"elo":1527,"date":"2010-02-06","opp":"Demian Maia","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":5,"x":235.9,"y":162.4,"elo":1515,"date":"2010-05-29","opp":"Michael Bisping","result":"L","delta":-12},{"i":6,"x":267,"y":140.7,"elo":1533,"date":"2010-08-28","opp":"John Salter","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":7,"x":303,"y":127,"elo":1544,"date":"2010-12-11","opp":"Joe Doerksen","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":8,"x":336.5,"y":142.7,"elo":1531,"date":"2011-03-19","opp":"Nate Marquardt","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":9,"x":391.6,"y":158.4,"elo":1518,"date":"2011-08-27","opp":"Rousimar Palhares","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":10,"x":494.3,"y":142.3,"elo":1532,"date":"2012-06-22","opp":"Ricardo Funch","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":11,"x":585.7,"y":166.7,"elo":1511,"date":"2013-03-16","opp":"Jordan Mein","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":12,"x":876,"y":187.5,"elo":1494,"date":"2015-07-12","opp":"Trevor Smith","result":"L","delta":-17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 12, 2015 Trevor Smith L -17
Mar 16, 2013 Jordan Mein L -20
Jun 22, 2012 Ricardo Funch W +13
Aug 27, 2011 Rousimar Palhares L -13
Mar 19, 2011 Nate Marquardt L -13

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
1.86 avg 3.81
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
36% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.86 avg 3.07
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
49% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.41 avg 1.42
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
52% avg 45%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
47% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.50 avg 0.48
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
4 / 6
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
4
67% of wins
DEC
2
33% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 4 (67%) 4 Dec: 2 (33%) 2
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
2 50%
R2
1 25%
R3
1 25%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1523
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.8
actual -1 vs expected