HonestElo
← bantamweight

Brad Katona

Active #77 bantamweight · Orthodox · 168 cm · reach 163 cm
Elo rating
1482 ±37
LCB 1434
Rank
#77
top 81% of division
UFC record
4-5-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 4
Streak
-2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -19
Last fight
May 10, 2025
L by KO

Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Jul 6, 2018 — W vs Jay Cucciniello Δ+36Dec 8, 2018 — W vs Matthew Lopez Δ+25May 4, 2019 — L vs Merab Dvalishvili Δ-36Sep 14, 2019 — L vs Hunter Azure Δ-31Aug 19, 2023 — W vs Cody Gibson Δ+25Jan 20, 2024 — L vs Garrett Armfield Δ-17Jun 8, 2024 — W vs Jesse Butler Δ+15Oct 19, 2024 — L vs Jean Matsumoto Δ-15May 10, 2025 — L vs Bekzat Almakhan Δ-19 14421482152215621601 202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":111,"elo":1536,"date":"2018-07-06","opp":"Jay Cucciniello","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":1,"x":76.8,"y":77.2,"elo":1561,"date":"2018-12-08","opp":"Matthew Lopez","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":2,"x":126.9,"y":125.5,"elo":1525,"date":"2019-05-04","opp":"Merab Dvalishvili","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":3,"x":172.2,"y":166.7,"elo":1494,"date":"2019-09-14","opp":"Hunter Azure","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":4,"x":661.3,"y":133.9,"elo":1519,"date":"2023-08-19","opp":"Cody Gibson","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":5,"x":713.8,"y":156.3,"elo":1502,"date":"2024-01-20","opp":"Garrett Armfield","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":6,"x":761.5,"y":136.6,"elo":1517,"date":"2024-06-08","opp":"Jesse Butler","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":806.8,"y":156.9,"elo":1502,"date":"2024-10-19","opp":"Jean Matsumoto","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":8,"x":876,"y":182.8,"elo":1482,"date":"2025-05-10","opp":"Bekzat Almakhan","result":"L","delta":-19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 10, 2025 Bekzat Almakhan L -19
Oct 19, 2024 Jean Matsumoto L -15
Jun 8, 2024 Jesse Butler W +15
Jan 20, 2024 Garrett Armfield L -17
Aug 19, 2023 Cody Gibson W +25

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.66 avg 3.92
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
52% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.60 avg 3.04
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
50% avg 58%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.80 avg 1.64
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
34% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
62% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.37
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 4
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
4
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 4 (100%) 4

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1487
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.9
actual -1 vs expected