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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Croden

Has never been finished — the only loss went to the scorecards.

Tale of the tape

2-1-0 UFC record 3-3-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 1
+1 Streak +1
35 Age 35
5'9" 175 cm Height 5'8" 173 cm
68" 173 cm Reach 68" 173 cm
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
1541 Global Elo 1492
1492 Elo rating 1440
Melissa Croden — Notable
At a glance
Chelsea Chandler — Notable
At a glance

Melissa Croden — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 190 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
71% Head
  • Head 71%
  • Body 16%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
62% Distance
  • Distance 62%
  • Clinch 18%
  • Ground 20%

Chelsea Chandler — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 195 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
70% Head
  • Head 70%
  • Body 27%
  • Leg 3%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
62% Distance
  • Distance 62%
  • Clinch 21%
  • Ground 17%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.27
3.52
div avg 3.92
47%
45%
div avg 48%
2.13
4.27
div avg 3.30
59%
40%
div avg 56%
2.02
0.81
div avg 1.33
50%
60%
div avg 39%
67%
25%
div avg 64%
0.34
0.27
div avg 0.44
4
4
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Melissa Croden
50% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Chelsea Chandler
finished 33%
1 of 3 losses
Chelsea Chandler
67% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 1
can finish?
Melissa Croden
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1548 (Melissa Croden) vs 1527 (Chelsea Chandler).

Melissa Croden red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1548
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Daria Zhelezniakova
Elo 1531 at fight time
Expected wins
1.4
+0.6 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1525
1531
Chelsea Chandler blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1527
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Josiane Nunes
Elo 1583 at fight time
Expected wins
3.0
+0.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1442
1464
Corner A recent form
Melissa Croden
Corner B recent form
Chelsea Chandler
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Melissa Croden & Chelsea Chandler on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.