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✓ Chelsea Chandler won · by Submission · R1

Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler — Honest Elo matchup

women's bantamweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Oct 17, 2026 · Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
View full event card
Corner A
Melissa Croden
#19 2-2-0
Elo 1451
VS
Corner B
Chelsea Chandler
#17 4-3-0
Elo 1463
Final result · recorded Oct 17, 2026
Chelsea Chandler
defeated Melissa Croden by Submission in round 1

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Melissa Croden 69.7% · Chelsea Chandler 30.3%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Melissa Croden 57.1% · Chelsea Chandler 42.9%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 6
Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott Main event · welterweight Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius women's flyweight Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus middleweight Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr lightweight Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz heavyweight Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow bantamweight

Tale of the tape

2-2-0 UFC record 4-3-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 2
-1 Streak +2
35 Age 35
5'9" 175 cm Height 5'8" 173 cm
68" 173 cm Reach 68" 173 cm
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
1504 Global Elo 1513
1451 Elo rating 1463
Melissa Croden — Notable ▼
At a glance
Chelsea Chandler — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 2 submissions in a row
  • 75% of wins by KO or submission
  • 75% of wins finished in round 1

Melissa Croden — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 201 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
69% Head
  • Head 69%
  • Body 18%
  • Leg 12%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
61% Distance
  • Distance 61%
  • Clinch 20%
  • Ground 19%

Chelsea Chandler — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 207 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
68% Head
  • Head 68%
  • Body 29%
  • Leg 3%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
59% Distance
  • Distance 59%
  • Clinch 24%
  • Ground 16%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.07
3.43
div avg 3.78
47%
45%
div avg 49%
2.17
4.11
div avg 3.32
59%
42%
div avg 56%
2.13
0.75
div avg 1.32
47%
50%
div avg 39%
69%
36%
div avg 63%
0.30
0.50
div avg 0.45
4
4
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Melissa Croden
50% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Chelsea Chandler
finished 33%
1 of 3 losses
Chelsea Chandler
75% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 2
can finish?
Melissa Croden
finished 50%
1 of 2 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1534 (Melissa Croden) vs 1523 (Chelsea Chandler).

Melissa Croden red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1534
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Daria Zhelezniakova
Elo 1531 at fight time
Expected wins
1.9
+0.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1525
1492
Chelsea Chandler blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1523
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Josiane Nunes
Elo 1583 at fight time
Expected wins
3.4
+0.6 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 7 fights
1442
1541
Corner A recent form
Melissa Croden
Corner B recent form
Chelsea Chandler
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Melissa Croden & Chelsea Chandler on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.