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Paul Varelans "The Polar Bear"

Inactive catchweight bout (unranked) · Orthodox · 6'8" 203 cm · 300 lb 136 kg
At a glance
  • 75% of wins by KO or submission
  • 75% of wins finished in round 1
  • 86% takedown defense in last 3 fights
  • UFC veteran since 1995
Elo rating
1451
Global Elo 1498 ±36
Rank
—
—
UFC record
4-4-0
KO 2 · Sub 1 · Dec 1
Streak
-1
Δ90d -4 · Δ1y -4
Last fight
Dec 7, 1996
Loss by KO · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
38m
Avg fight time
4:48
Title fights
0-1
Fights per year
5.7
Since last fight
29y 7mo

Honest Elo history

8 fights · tap & drag
Jul 14, 1995 — L vs David Abbott Δ-37Jul 14, 1995 — W vs Cal Worsham Δ+37Sep 8, 1995 — W vs Gerry Harris Δ+33Sep 8, 1995 — W vs Mark Hall Δ+30Sep 8, 1995 — L vs Marco Ruas Δ-41Dec 16, 1995 — L vs Dan Severn Δ-13Feb 16, 1996 — W vs Joe Moreira Δ+16Dec 7, 1996 — L vs Kimo Leopoldo Δ-22 13751400142514501475150015251550 1996 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":341.6,"elo":1412,"date":"1995-07-14","opp":"David Abbott","result":"L","delta":-37},{"i":1,"x":90,"y":274.7,"elo":1449,"date":"1995-07-14","opp":"Cal Worsham","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":2,"x":168.8,"y":214,"elo":1482,"date":"1995-09-08","opp":"Gerry Harris","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":3,"x":168.8,"y":159.1,"elo":1512,"date":"1995-09-08","opp":"Mark Hall","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":4,"x":168.8,"y":235,"elo":1471,"date":"1995-09-08","opp":"Marco Ruas","result":"L","delta":-41},{"i":5,"x":308,"y":259,"elo":1458,"date":"1995-12-16","opp":"Dan Severn","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":6,"x":395.2,"y":230.4,"elo":1473,"date":"1996-02-16","opp":"Joe Moreira","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":7,"x":810,"y":270.5,"elo":1451,"date":"1996-12-07","opp":"Kimo Leopoldo","result":"L","delta":-22}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Dec 7, 1996 Kimo Leopoldo L -22
Feb 16, 1996 Joe Moreira W +16
Dec 16, 1995 Dan Severn L -13
Sep 8, 1995 Marco Ruas L -41
Sep 8, 1995 Mark Hall W +30

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
—
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
75%
3 / 4
Finish rate
KO
2
50% of wins
SUB
1
25% of wins
DEC
1
25% of wins
KO: 2 (50%) 2 Sub: 1 (25%) 1 Dec: 1 (25%) 1
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
3 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 56 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
71% Head
  • Head 71%
  • Body 11%
  • Leg 18%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
38% Clinch
  • Distance 30%
  • Clinch 38%
  • Ground 32%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
100%
of losses by finish
4 of 4 · usually R1
3 KO/TKO 1 Sub 0 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1529
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Cal Worsham
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
4.0
−0.0 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 8 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1460
1458
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Paul Varelans on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.